Linking moisture and near-surface wind with winter temperature to reveal the Holocene climate evolution in arid Xinjiang region of China

An increasing number of palaeo-climatic records have been reported to identify the Holocene climate history in the arid Xinjiang region of northwest China. However, few studies have fully considered the internal linkages within the regional climate system, which may limit our understanding of the forcing mechanisms of Holocene climate change in this region. Here, we systematically consider three major issues of the moisture/precipitation, temperature and near-surface wind relevant to the Holocene climate history of Xinjiang. First, despite there still has debated for the Holocene moisture evolution in this region, more climatic reconstructions from lake sediments, loess, sand-dunes and peats support a long-term regional wetting trend. Second, temperature records from ice cores, peats and stalagmites demonstrate a long-term winter warming trend during the Holocene in middle- to high-latitudes of Asia. Third, recent studies of aeolian sedimentary sequences reveal that the near-surface winds in winter gradually weakened during the Holocene, whereas the winter mid-latitude Westerlies strengthened in the Tienshan Mountains. Based on this evidence, in the arid Xinjiang region we propose an early to middle Holocene relatively cold and dry interval, with strong near-surface winds; and a warmer, wetter interval with weaker near-surface winds in the middle to late Holocene during winter. Additionally, we develop a conceptual model to explain the pattern of Holocene climate changes in this region. From the early to the late Holocene, the increasing atmospheric CO₂ content and winter insolation, and the shrinking of high-latitude continental ice-sheets, resulted in increasing winter temperatures in middle to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Subsequently, the increased winter temperature strengthened the winter mid-latitude Westerlies and weakened the Siberian high-pressure system, which caused an increase in winter precipitation and a decrease in near-surface wind strength. This scenario is strongly supported by evidence from geological records, climate simulation results, and modern reanalysis data. Our hypothesis highlights the important contribution of winter temperature in driving the Holocene climatic evolution of the arid Xinjiang region, and it implies that the socio-economic development and water resources security of this region will face serious challenges presented by the increasing winter temperature in the future.