Multivariate statistical analysis of chemical and stable isotopic data as indicative of groundwater evolution with reduced exploitation

Groundwater resources in the North China Plain (NCP) are undergoing tremendous changes in response to the operation of groundwater exploitation reduction (GWER) project. To identify groundwater evolution in this complex context, hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) and principal component analysis (PCA) were combined to interpret an integrated dataset of stable isotopes and chemical data from four sampling campaigns in a pilot area of groundwater control. We proposed a novel HCA approach integrating stable isotopes and chemical signals, which successfully partitioned the groundwater samples into the unconfined and the confined water samples. Stable isotopic evidence showed that the lateral inflow and the surface water may contribute more to groundwater recharge in this region than local modern precipitation. The unconfined water’s main hydrochemical types were Na type with mixed anions, and Na–Cl–SO₄ type, while the confined water was mainly Na–Cl and Na–SO₄ types. Geochemical processes mainly involved the dissolution/precipitation of halite, gypsum, Glauber's salt, feldspar, calcite and dolomite, as well as the cation exchange. PCA results showed that water–rock interaction (i.e., salinity-based and alkalinity-based processes) predominated the hydrochemical evolution, along with local nitrate contamination resulting from fertilizers and domestic sewage. The GWER project regulated the natural evolution of unconfined water chemistry, and significantly reduced the unconfined water’s salinity (mainly Na⁺, Mg²⁺, SO₄^2-). This may be attributed to upward leakage from low-salinity confined water at some parts of the aquifer. Additionally, insignificant changes in the confined water’s salinity reflected that the impact of GWER on the confined aquifer was negligible. This study facilitates the groundwater classification effectively in the areas lack of geological data, and enhances the knowledge of groundwater chemical evolution in such a region where groundwater restoration is in progress, with important implications for groundwater sustainable management in similar basins worldwide.