Exploring the factors affecting urban ecological risk: A case from an Indian mega metropolitan region

Assessment of ecological risk (ER) is a key approach to adapting and mitigating ecological deterioration in cities of developing countries. In developing countries, the ecological landscapes such as vegetation cover, water bodies, and wetlands are highly vulnerable due to rapid urban expansion. Therefore, urban ER (UER) assessment and its drivers are crucial to guide ecological protection as well as restoration. This study aims to explore the spatiotemporal pattern of UER and the impact of urban spatial form on UER in the Kolkata Megacity Region (KMR), India. This study developed a UER index and used spatial regression models across the urban centres. The ER has been assessed at city scale as well as grid-scale (2 km×2 km and 5 km×5 km) from 2000 to 2020. The results showed that ER has substantially increased over the last 20 years. The urban centres with very high and high ER substantially increased, i.e. from 21.95% in 2000 to 31.70% in 2020. Kolkata and its surrounding urban centres were mostly characterized by very high and high ER. ER was influenced by spatial variables (such as land use and landscapes pattern). However, remote sensing parameters were weakly related to ER. The spatial lag model (SLM) (R² = 0.8686) was found to be better fit model than spatial error model (SEM) (R² = 0.8661) and ordinary linear regression model (OLS) (R² = 0.8641). Thus, the findings of the study can improve research and a comprehensive framework for urban ecological resources and provide a scientific basis for urban ecosystem planning and restoration. In addition to this, it will guarantee the sustainable utilization of urban ecosystems.